From NBER’s −$39B to +$11B

NBER AS REPORTED, THEN PS SIZING · 2026 DOLLARS From NBER’s −$39B to +$11B NBER paper PS sizing −$60B −$40B −$20B $0 $20B $40B $60B $80B $100B $120B $100.9B Face value 5% of $2T Page $13.7B Brin $12.7B −$28.9B Already left 7 people (Table 7) Thiel + 4: $2.5B −$36B Legal risk One 50% weight (ASC 740), not itemized $36B Wealth tax Average case Best guess: $30B −$74.9B Lost income tax Implied by the paper’s −$38.9B −$38.9B NBER net 85% of cases lose money +$47.5B Real income Tax lost from filings: $27.4B, not $74.9B +$2.8B Homecoming Invite the 7 back, no penalty $11.4B PS net What California would net Source: Jaros & Rauh, NBER Working Paper 35899 (Oct 2026); PS sizing from SEC filings and Forbes