NBER: California’s $100B Billionaire Tax Costs the State $39B

DATA · NBER PAPER · IN 2026 DOLLARS NBER: California’s $100B Billionaire Tax Costs the State $39B −$60B −$40B −$20B $0 $20B $40B $60B $80B $100B $120B $100.9B Face value 5% of $2T Page $13.7B Brin $12.7B −$28.9B Already left 7 people (Table 7) Thiel + 4: $2.5B −$36B Legal risk One 50% weight (ASC 740), not itemized $36B Wealth tax Average case Best guess: $30B −$74.9B Lost income tax Implied by the paper’s −$38.9B −$38.9B Net to California 85% of cases lose money Source: Jaros & Rauh, NBER Working Paper 35899 (Oct 2026)