Missing To Avoid Losing Hurts More Than Winning Helps

DATA · PENALTY PSYCHOLOGY Missing To Avoid Losing Hurts More Than Winning Helps Chance to win it Score = win outright · 61/78 kicks 78.2% Routine kick No immediate stakes · 504/662 kicks 76.1% Partial pressure Elevated, not sudden-death · 112/157 kicks 71.3% Must score to survive Miss = lose outright · 81/117 kicks 69.2% 9 points below a chance to win Hubbard & Britto, "Optimal Lineups in Penalty Kick Shootouts" (Duke, 2013–14) — 1,014 kicks, 98 shootouts, 1972–2013. Corroborated by Jordet & Hartman (2008) and an independent July 2026 replication, both finding an even starker gap: ~92% vs. under 60%.