Out of 1 Million Kids Who Want to Be a Doctor, About 59,000 Make It

DATA · AAMC, NRMP, PLOS ONE Out of 1 Million Kids Who Want to Be a Doctor, About 59,000 Make It Wants to become a doctor, as a kid 1,000,000 100.0% of starting cohort GETTING INTO MEDICAL SCHOOL — 7.1% MAKE IT THROUGH 16.5% of the stage above Complete required pre-med coursework 165,000 16.5% of starting cohort ≈99,691 also sat the MCAT that year (AAMC, 2025) 44.4% of the stage above Get an acceptance 73,260 7.3% of starting cohort 96.5% of the stage above Enroll (matriculate) 70,696 7.1% of starting cohort MEDICAL SCHOOL — 96.1% MAKE IT THROUGH 96.1% of the stage above Graduate medical school 67,939 6.8% of starting cohort Along the way: USMLE Step 1 93% pass, Step 2 CK 98% pass (first attempt, NBME 2025) GETTING INTO RESIDENCY — 91.3% MAKE IT THROUGH 97.6% of the stage above Become an active residency applicant 66,309 6.6% of starting cohort 93.5% of the stage above Match into a residency 62,019 6.2% of starting cohort RESIDENCY — 95.2% MAKE IT THROUGH 95.2% of the stage above Complete residency 59,042 5.9% of starting cohort USMLE Step 3 96% pass (end of PGY-1/PGY-2, NBME 2025) · intern year (PGY-1) is the single highest-attrition year in every specialty studied Starting cohort is an illustrative round 1,000,000, not a census figure. Every conversion rate after that is real and sourced — AAMC, NBME/USMLE, and NRMP primary data throughout, MD pathway only, US only.