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December 15, 2023
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Idea2023

Skipping a Wide Release for Glass Onion May Have Cost Netflix $100–150M in Profit

- Knives out 1 did $300M+ in box office, with 25% of that marked as pure Profit - Knives out 2 reached 35M households in the first 3 days of online...

Context

A 2023 streaming-strategy note: back-of-envelope math on Knives Out's box-office economics suggests a wide theatrical release for Glass Onion could have added $100–150M in profit.

KnivesOut Glass Onion was a fantastic movie -- quite different than the first, but fantastic nonetheless. I'm baffled that Netflix didn't release it in theaters* (not really at least). Here's the rough math:

  • Knives out 1 did $300M+ in box office, with 25% of that marked as pure Profit
  • Knives out 2 reached 35M households in the first 3 days of online release
  • If you can believe that KO2 would've done $500M in revenue, that would've put profits in the range of $100M-$150M

Netflix's entire Q4 profits are projected to be around $1.5B... aka releasing the movie in theaters would've single-handedly boosted profits by +10% (or a full 2 seasons of the Witcher made for free!!)

I can't fathom why you'd hold back the release (particularly when you think every US household already has access to NFLX)

Ted Sarandos Reed Hastings humor me with an answer if y'all get bored this holiday season 🙏🏽😁

Charts on this

  • KPop Demon Hunters logged 2.8× Mario’s Top 10 weeks
  • Ms. Rachel: 26 Top 10 weeks. The Gentlemen: 15
  • Suits Ran Away With Netflix's 2023 Attention
  • Bridgerton Barely Beat Suits for 2024's Crown

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