{
  "current": "nyc-voter-turnout-2017-2025",
  "title": "Youngins drove Mamdani's NYC's win",
  "title_authorship": "User supplied, preserved verbatim. Candidate support is supplied separately by an exit poll; turnout rates alone do not identify candidate choices or establish a counterfactual election result.",
  "metric": "General-election turnout as percentage of registered voters in each age group. 2017 source explicitly uses active registered voters; later report describes registered voters without an explicit active/inactive definition. Treat the historical comparison as reported, with this qualification, not a harmonized microdata estimate.",
  "sources": [
    {
      "url": "https://nyccfb.info/pdf/VAAC-2018.pdf",
      "title": "2017\u20132018 Voter Assistance Annual Report",
      "printed_page": 37,
      "pdf_page": 47,
      "age_rates": {
        "18\u201329": 13.5,
        "30\u201339": 19.6,
        "40\u201349": 24.3,
        "50\u201359": 29.9,
        "60\u201369": 35.9,
        "70+": 31.6
      },
      "scope_note": "All registered voters, not the separate newly-registered-only table on page 14. Do not use 13.4% for overall youth turnout. 70+ cannot be split into 70\u201379 and 80+."
    },
    {
      "url": "https://nycvotes-frontdoor-e6btczg8gpffcqd9.a02.azurefd.net/media/co5fz2zk/2025-voter-analysis-report_final-2.pdf",
      "title": "2025 Voter Analysis Report",
      "age_table": "Figure 2.28, printed page 59",
      "citywide_table": "Figure 2.20, printed page 49",
      "citywide_turnout_percent": {
        "2017": 25.2,
        "2021": 23.3,
        "2025": 41.6
      },
      "citywide_voters": {
        "2017": 1149469,
        "2021": 1147555,
        "2025": 2215088
      },
      "count_note": "Use the 2025 report's retrospective series consistently. 2017 and 2021 both round to 1.15m; retain exact counts here. These are all general-election participants, not mayoral valid votes."
    },
    {
      "url": "https://abcnews.com/Politics/mamdani-clinches-votes-young-people-newcomers-nyc-experts/story?id=127216885",
      "title": "Mamdani clinches the votes of young people, newcomers to NYC. Experts explain why",
      "date": "2025-11-06",
      "finding": "78% of voters under 30 supported Mamdani in ABC News exit polls conducted by SSRS.",
      "status": "Survey estimate, not administrative candidate-by-age vote counts."
    }
  ],
  "accessed": "2026-10-16",
  "covid_note": "2017 supplies a pre-pandemic comparison. This does not isolate a COVID effect. Youth turnout was 13.5% in 2017, 11.1% in 2021 and 41.9% in 2025.",
  "rebuild": "python3 assets/social/nyc-voter-turnout-2021-2025/render-v6.py (requires matplotlib and numpy)",
  "feedback_scope": "17 October 2026, this chart only: unify the voter-gain strip with one shared heading above aligned values, remove the repeated voters suffix, retain estimated-versus-reported distinctions, and align the source and historical age-band caveat on one footer baseline. Preserve the title, data, 0\u2013100 axis, tiny trends and citywide totals above All ages.",
  "additional_voters_method": {
    "2021": "2021\u20132022 Voter Analysis Report, Fig. 3.17, printed p. 52; published shares by age multiplied by 1,147,555 voters.",
    "2025": "2025 Voter Analysis Report, Fig. 2.33, printed p. 67: age shares within voting methods, weighted by Fig. 2.31 method shares (p. 65); multiply by 2,215,088 voters.",
    "2021_url": "https://www.nyccfb.info/pdf/2021-2022_VoterAnalysisReport.pdf",
    "2021_age_share_percent": [
      8.9,
      14,
      15.1,
      19.6,
      21.4,
      15,
      6.1
    ],
    "2025_method_order": [
      "Election day",
      "In-person early",
      "Vote by mail",
      "Affidavit"
    ],
    "2025_age_percent_by_method": [
      [
        18.7,
        18.3,
        16.1,
        16.1,
        15.8,
        10.7,
        4.2
      ],
      [
        17.7,
        18.1,
        14,
        15.8,
        17.4,
        12.7,
        4.2
      ],
      [
        19.8,
        15.7,
        9.6,
        10.1,
        13.9,
        16.6,
        14.3
      ],
      [
        35.2,
        22.7,
        12.6,
        10.7,
        9.7,
        6.1,
        3
      ]
    ],
    "method_weight_percent": [
      58,
      33.1,
      7.1,
      1.8
    ],
    "normalization": "Normalize each published age distribution to sum to 100% and method weights to sum to 100%. Affidavit weight approximated as 1.9% other minus 0.1% remaining other. The remaining other ballots are not separately allocated; this is an estimate, not exact administrative counts.",
    "rounding": "Whole-percent turnout labels use half-up rounding; underlying geometry uses original percentages. Additional voters shown to nearest 0.01M with \u2248 for derived age estimates; the shared heading supplies the unit and comparison period. Rounded group increases need not sum to rounded total.",
    "uncertainty": "Published age and method shares are rounded and remaining other methods are not broken out by age. Do not treat age-specific counts as exact; retained estimates are suitable only for the coarse labels shown.",
    "citywide": "2,215,088 minus 1,147,555 = 1,067,533 additional voters. Exact administrative total, displayed as +1.07M.",
    "sparkline": "Turnout, not counts: fixed 0\u2013100 scale across all miniature trends. Missing 2017 age splits omitted; no interpolated values."
  },
  "publication": {
    "page": "https://prophetsharing.ai/chart/nyc-voter-turnout-2017-2025/",
    "date": "2026-10-16",
    "previous_approved_artifact": "nyc-voter-turnout-2017-2021-2025-v5",
    "current_artifact": "nyc-voter-turnout-2017-2021-2025-v6",
    "updated": "2026-10-17"
  }
}