{
  "asOf": "2026-10-29",
  "status": "Reviewed for publication; inference remains material",
  "changes": [
    "Replace March 2024 pixel-derived endpoint ratios with published 67/23/8/2 labels, normalized only to the selected four app groups.",
    "Remove unsupported 2026 share drift: hold January CE 63.7/32.3/4 mix forward through September, with bounded Postmates allocation.",
    "Use calendar-year dollar points through 2025; 2026 stays explicitly Q3 × 4 pace. The share chart keeps its source-period history.",
    "Recalibrate 2019 and 2020 food dollars to disclosed annual Grubhub GFS; previous model understated 2019 by 7.6% and overstated 2020 by 14.7%.",
    "Use full-year BMC category totals for annual grocery dollar points, rather than interpolated mid-year totals."
  ],
  "roots": [
    {
      "root": "Bloomberg Second Measure",
      "role": "2019–March 2024 card-panel source history; source digitization and missing-brand interpolation; one vintage"
    },
    {
      "root": "Consumer Edge / Earnest family",
      "role": "2024–January 2026 card-panel anchors; Orion, Vela Gamma and US Transact are not independent confirmations or interchangeable samples"
    },
    {
      "root": "Edison Trends",
      "role": "Independent 2018–2019 receipt-panel rank cross-check; different basket / periods; no numeric averaging into Bloomberg"
    },
    {
      "root": "YipitData",
      "role": "2020–2023 selected online-grocery channel panel, pixel-derived history; 51% Walmart endpoint explicitly stated"
    },
    {
      "root": "Brick Meets Click",
      "role": "Independent household survey for broad online-grocery totals and Walmart share; the same calibration reused for shares and dollars is not independent corroboration"
    },
    {
      "root": "EMARKETER",
      "role": "Forecast / definition cross-check, not an observed panel or another independent vote for company filings"
    },
    {
      "root": "Company filings / disclosures",
      "role": "Grubhub, DoorDash, Instacart, Walmart, Kroger and Amazon supply financial anchors or growth proxies. Revenue, GOV/GTV, geography, category and calendar windows remain distinct."
    }
  ],
  "sourceWindows": {
    "food": "2015–2018 analyst reconstruction; 2019–March 2024 Bloomberg single-vintage panel, digitized; late 2024–2025 cross-panel CE joins; January 2026 US Transact mix held forward to September",
    "grocery": "2015–2019 company-level growth backcasts; 2020–2023 Yipit panel digitization; 2024–2026 company / EMARKETER / BMC movement model"
  },
  "historicalFoodDenominator": {
    "year2015": {
      "sourceGrubhubPlatformShare": 57,
      "displayedFourAppShare": 83.090386,
      "excludedOtherPlatformShare": 31.4
    },
    "interpretation": "83% on the chart is the four-displayed-app subtotal, not 83% of all delivery or all restaurants. Title no longer claims an exact historical/current 70%."
  },
  "annualFoodCalibration": {
    "before2020ModeledGrubhubGFS": 9.94039725,
    "reported2020GFS": 8.669,
    "overstatementPercent": 14.666019725458534,
    "after2020ModeledGrubhubGFS": 8.669,
    "year2019Reported": 5.9136,
    "year2019Recalibrated": 5.9136
  },
  "latestFood": {
    "reportedJanuaryThreeBrandMix": {
      "DoorDash": 63.7,
      "UberEats": 32.3,
      "Grubhub": 4
    },
    "displayedSeptemberMix": {
      "DoorDash": 63.668150000000004,
      "UberEats": 32.283849999999994,
      "Grubhub": 3.998,
      "Postmates": 0.05
    },
    "nowcastPolicy": "Flat latest-observation carry-forward, not an observed Q3 restaurant market share",
    "shareWorkingRangesPP": {
      "DoorDash": [
        60,
        70
      ],
      "UberEats": [
        27,
        36
      ],
      "Grubhub": [
        2,
        6
      ],
      "Postmates": [
        0,
        0.1
      ]
    },
    "annualizedDollars": {
      "low": 120.2481142857143,
      "base": 153.53058004669523,
      "high": 185.54413333333335
    }
  },
  "groceryTriangulation": {
    "bmcAllOnlineWalmart": "Approaching 40%; not an exact 39.5% observation",
    "workingAllOnlineWalmart": 39.5,
    "selectedChannelWalmart": 55.571592,
    "selectedCoverage": 0.7107948248090499,
    "coverageFormula": "39.5 / selected-channel Walmart percentage",
    "independence": "Walmart all-online share and coverage match by construction. They are not two confirming observations.",
    "selectedInstacartDollars": 26.215051,
    "impliedAllOnlineInstacartShare": 16.11215208662728,
    "emarketer2026ForecastShare": 15.3,
    "definitionQualification": "EMARKETER forecast spans a different full-year/category scope; it is a magnitude cross-check, not an exact validation of Marketplace-only selected-channel sales.",
    "companyGtvPace": 42.112,
    "impliedRatioSelectedMarketplaceToCompanyGtv": 0.6225078599924012,
    "companyConversionScenario": [
      22.550976000000002,
      37.2459584
    ],
    "broadBmcPace": 162.7036,
    "selectedPace": 115.648877,
    "selectedPaceCoverageSensitivity": [
      98.30154544999999,
      132.99620854999998
    ],
    "leadershipRobustToRetainedShareRanges": true
  },
  "limits": [
    "No complete public 2026 restaurant-only company-level census or nine-channel grocery share export was found. Current splits remain conditional models.",
    "The four-food-app denominator and selected grocery ordering-channel denominator overlap and cannot be added. Neither is all grocery or all restaurant sales.",
    "2015–2018 food ratios, 2015–2019 grocery backcasts, panel-family transitions and all 2026 food/grocery splits carry inference.",
    "Historical analyst estimates and company GMV / GOV can disagree materially because of coverage, category and period. In particular 2018 DoorDash reported global GOV is larger than the historical U.S. proxy; early dollar levels have wide sensitivity, not audited precision.",
    "Food endpoint dollar ranges vary U.S. GOV mix and panel share, not all definition risk. Grocery proxy bounds are judgment sensitivity, not statistical confidence intervals.",
    "EMARKETER, company reports and BMC-derived coverages can share assumptions; repeated articles and repeated arithmetic are not independent evidence.",
    "Non-market company net-income charts retain reported scope and missing years. DoorDash and Instacart remain separate in 2026; an announced acquisition is not a closed merger."
  ],
  "bmcMonthlySourceReceipts": [
    {
      "date": "2024-01",
      "total": 8.5,
      "unit": "USD billions per month",
      "status": "reported survey level; rounded",
      "url": "https://www.brickmeetsclick.com/insights/january-2024-u-s-egrocery-sales-total-8-5-billion-up-2-versus-year-ago",
      "local": "sources/bmc-jan2024.html"
    },
    {
      "date": "2024-02",
      "total": 7.9,
      "unit": "USD billions per month",
      "status": "reported survey level; rounded",
      "url": "https://www.brickmeetsclick.com/insights/february-2024-u-s-egrocery-sales-total-7-9-billion-down-10-versus-year-ago",
      "local": "sources/bmc-feb2024.html"
    },
    {
      "date": "2024-03",
      "total": 8,
      "unit": "USD billions per month",
      "status": "reported survey level; rounded",
      "url": "https://www.brickmeetsclick.com/presses/march-2024-u-s-egrocery-sales-total-8-0-billion-flat-versus-year-ago",
      "local": "sources/bmc-march-2024-u-s-egrocery-sales-total-8-0-billion-flat-versus-year-ago.html"
    },
    {
      "date": "2024-04",
      "total": 8.5,
      "unit": "USD billions per month",
      "status": "reported survey level; rounded",
      "url": "https://www.brickmeetsclick.com/presses/april-2024-u-s-egrocery-sales-total-8-5-billion-up-4-versus-year-ago",
      "local": "sources/bmc-april-2024-u-s-egrocery-sales-total-8-5-billion-up-4-versus-year-ago.html"
    },
    {
      "date": "2024-05",
      "total": 6.8,
      "unit": "USD billions per month",
      "status": "reported survey level; rounded",
      "url": "https://www.brickmeetsclick.com/presses/may-2024-u-s-egrocery-sales-total-6-8-billion-down-slightly-versus-year-ago",
      "local": "sources/bmc-may-2024-u-s-egrocery-sales-total-6-8-billion-down-slightly-versus-year-ago.html"
    },
    {
      "date": "2024-06",
      "total": 7.7,
      "unit": "USD billions per month",
      "status": "reported survey level; rounded",
      "url": "https://www.brickmeetsclick.com/presses/june-2024-u-s-egrocery-sales-total-7-7-billion-up-8-versus-year-ago",
      "local": "sources/bmc-june-2024-u-s-egrocery-sales-total-7-7-billion-up-8-versus-year-ago.html"
    },
    {
      "date": "2024-07",
      "total": 7.9,
      "unit": "USD billions per month",
      "status": "reported survey level; rounded",
      "url": "https://www.brickmeetsclick.com/presses/july-2024-u-s-egrocery-sales-climbed-9-versus-year-ago-to-7-9-billion",
      "local": "sources/bmc-july-2024-u-s-egrocery-sales-climbed-9-versus-year-ago-to-7-9-billion.html"
    },
    {
      "date": "2024-08",
      "total": 9.9,
      "unit": "USD billions per month",
      "status": "reported survey level; rounded",
      "url": "https://www.brickmeetsclick.com/presses/august-2024-u-s-egrocery-sales-climbed-to-9-9-billion-up-7-versus-year-ago",
      "local": "sources/bmc-august-2024-u-s-egrocery-sales-climbed-to-9-9-billion-up-7-versus-year-ago.html"
    },
    {
      "date": "2024-09",
      "total": 9.5,
      "unit": "USD billions per month",
      "status": "reported survey level; rounded",
      "url": "https://www.brickmeetsclick.com/presses/september-2025-u-s-egrocery-sales-surge-to-new-high-up-31-versus-year-ago",
      "local": "sources/bmc-september-2025-u-s-egrocery-sales-surge-to-new-high-up-31-versus-year-ago.html",
      "note": "Prior-year level in the September 2025 source graphic."
    },
    {
      "date": "2024-10",
      "total": 10.5,
      "unit": "USD billions per month",
      "status": "reported survey level; rounded",
      "url": "https://www.brickmeetsclick.com/presses/october-2024-u-s-egrocery-sales-jump-28-versus-year-ago-to-10-5-billion",
      "local": "sources/bmc-october-2024-u-s-egrocery-sales-jump-28-versus-year-ago-to-10-5-billion.html"
    },
    {
      "date": "2024-11",
      "total": 9.6,
      "unit": "USD billions per month",
      "status": "reported survey level; rounded",
      "url": "https://www.brickmeetsclick.com/presses/november-2024-u-s-egrocery-total-9-6-billion-climbing-18-versus-year-ago",
      "local": "sources/bmc-november-2024-u-s-egrocery-total-9-6-billion-climbing-18-versus-year-ago.html"
    },
    {
      "date": "2024-12",
      "total": 9.6,
      "unit": "USD billions per month",
      "status": "reported survey level; rounded",
      "url": "https://www.brickmeetsclick.com/presses/december-2024-u-s-egrocery-sales-climb-19-versus-year-ago-to-9-6-billion",
      "local": "sources/bmc-december-2024-u-s-egrocery-sales-climb-19-versus-year-ago-to-9-6-billion.html"
    },
    {
      "date": "2025-01",
      "total": 10,
      "unit": "USD billions per month",
      "status": "reported survey level; rounded",
      "url": "https://www.brickmeetsclick.com/presses/january-2025-egrocery-sales-jump-17-versus-year-ago-to-10-0-billion",
      "local": "sources/bmc-january-2025-egrocery-sales-jump-17-versus-year-ago-to-10-0-billion.html"
    },
    {
      "date": "2025-02",
      "total": 10.3,
      "unit": "USD billions per month",
      "status": "reported survey level; rounded",
      "url": "https://www.brickmeetsclick.com/presses/february-2025-egrocery-sales-surge-31-versus-year-ago-to-10-3-billion",
      "local": "sources/bmc-february-2025-egrocery-sales-surge-31-versus-year-ago-to-10-3-billion.html"
    },
    {
      "date": "2025-03",
      "total": 9.7,
      "unit": "USD billions per month",
      "status": "reported survey level; rounded",
      "url": "https://www.brickmeetsclick.com/presses/march-2025-egrocery-sales-jump-21-versus-year-ago-to-9-7-billion",
      "local": "sources/bmc-march-2025-egrocery-sales-jump-21-versus-year-ago-to-9-7-billion.html"
    },
    {
      "date": "2025-04",
      "total": 9.8,
      "unit": "USD billions per month",
      "status": "reported survey level; rounded",
      "url": "https://www.brickmeetsclick.com/presses/april-2025-egrocery-sales-jump-15-versus-year-ago-to-9-8-billion",
      "local": "sources/bmc-april-2025-egrocery-sales-jump-15-versus-year-ago-to-9-8-billion.html"
    },
    {
      "date": "2025-05",
      "total": 8.7,
      "unit": "USD billions per month",
      "status": "reported survey level; rounded",
      "url": "https://www.brickmeetsclick.com/presses/may-2025-egrocery-sales-jump-27-versus-year-ago-to-8-7-billion",
      "local": "sources/bmc-may-2025-egrocery-sales-jump-27-versus-year-ago-to-8-7-billion.html"
    },
    {
      "date": "2025-06",
      "total": 9.8,
      "unit": "USD billions per month",
      "status": "reported survey level; rounded",
      "url": "https://www.brickmeetsclick.com/presses/june-2025-u-s-egrocery-sales-continue-to-surge-up-28-versus-year-ago",
      "local": "sources/bmc-june-2025-u-s-egrocery-sales-continue-to-surge-up-28-versus-year-ago.html"
    },
    {
      "date": "2025-07",
      "total": 10,
      "unit": "USD billions per month",
      "status": "reported survey level; rounded",
      "url": "https://www.brickmeetsclick.com/presses/july-2025-u-s-egrocery-sales-jump-to-10-0-billion-up-26-versus-year-ago",
      "local": "sources/bmc-july-2025-u-s-egrocery-sales-jump-to-10-0-billion-up-26-versus-year-ago.html"
    },
    {
      "date": "2025-08",
      "total": 11.2,
      "unit": "USD billions per month",
      "status": "reported survey level; rounded",
      "url": "https://www.brickmeetsclick.com/presses/august-2025-u-s-egrocery-sales-hit-a-record-high-of-11-2-billion",
      "local": "sources/bmc-august-2025-u-s-egrocery-sales-hit-a-record-high-of-11-2-billion.html"
    },
    {
      "date": "2025-09",
      "total": 12.5,
      "unit": "USD billions per month",
      "status": "reported survey level; rounded",
      "url": "https://www.brickmeetsclick.com/presses/september-2025-u-s-egrocery-sales-surge-to-new-high-up-31-versus-year-ago",
      "local": "sources/bmc-september-2025-u-s-egrocery-sales-surge-to-new-high-up-31-versus-year-ago.html"
    },
    {
      "date": "2025-10",
      "total": 11.6,
      "unit": "USD billions per month",
      "status": "reported survey level; rounded",
      "url": "https://www.brickmeetsclick.com/presses/u-s-egrocery-total-11-6-billion-in-october-2025-up-10-5-versus-year-ago",
      "local": "sources/bmc-u-s-egrocery-total-11-6-billion-in-october-2025-up-10-5-versus-year-ago.html"
    },
    {
      "date": "2025-11",
      "total": 12.3,
      "unit": "USD billions per month",
      "status": "reported survey level; rounded",
      "url": "https://www.brickmeetsclick.com/presses/u-s-egrocery-sales-surge-29-yoy-to-12-3-billion-in-november-2025",
      "local": "sources/bmc-u-s-egrocery-sales-surge-29-yoy-to-12-3-billion-in-november-2025.html"
    },
    {
      "date": "2025-12",
      "total": 12.7,
      "unit": "USD billions per month",
      "status": "reported survey level; rounded",
      "url": "https://www.brickmeetsclick.com/presses/u-s-egrocery-sales-surge-32-yoy-to-a-record-12-7-billion-in-december-2025",
      "local": "sources/bmc-u-s-egrocery-sales-surge-32-yoy-to-a-record-12-7-billion-in-december-2025.html"
    }
  ]
}