SPORTS GAMES — ANNUAL REVENUE ESTIMATES | AUDIT 2026-10-08

Every plotted total is inferred. Source-reported title revenue, annual changes, unit milestones, bookings and analyst estimates are inputs, not interchangeable franchise revenue observations. USD millions, nominal. Target: worldwide publisher revenue from physical/digital games and recurrent spending; scope completeness varies. Bounds are assumption sensitivity, not confidence intervals.

PERIODS: EA fiscal years end March. Take-Two changed fiscal calendars and accounting; NBA early years are explicitly reference-year proxies. Paired review points use the fiscal year containing release, not edition number. Latest released reviews appear through FY2027; the revenue series stops at completed FY2026, leaving FY2027 revenue blank. Revenue is not lifetime edition sales. FY2027 is incomplete and excluded.

NBA 2K: 2010–2016 and 2019 absolute levels use unit-price and assumed recurrent-spending allocations. Reported NBA annual revenue changes constrain 2017 (+265.8M), 2018 (+159.4M), 2020 (+185.5M), 2021 (+378.6M), 2024 (-30M), 2026 (+416.9M). FY2019 is re-anchored: the disclosed +43.9M excludes ASC606 adoption and cannot be chained as a comparable total. These deltas do not reveal absolute annual revenue. Other recent years use documented unit/RCS scenarios. Independent digital-spending and launch-bookings checks use different periods and gross/net scope.
EARLY NBA WARNING: 2000 uses US annual retail units, assumed global uplift and net price. 2005–2008 allocate a six-million cumulative unit constraint using all-sports label revenue weights, assumed prices and timing; they are NOT annual measured units. 2009 uses a later edition-sales milestone with assumed recognition. 2001 uses calendar retail units with assumed fiscal timing. 2002–2004 use VGChartz estimated edition lifetime units, assumed annual capture, missing-platform allowances and net price. These are year-specific edition inputs, not observed annual revenue. Calendar 2000 and FY2001 proxies overlap and must not be summed. Acquisition perimeter, October/March/calendar-year timing and allocation remain unresolved. No claim of independent annual triangulation is made for these points.

MADDEN: early unit milestones times assumed publisher realized price; FY2007 title revenue is a baseline, not a full-franchise disclosure. Later years use the dated Pachter games/add-ons scale, EA-wide Ultimate Team proxies, assumed Madden allocation, and mobile scenarios. Mobile may overlap analyst add-ons; bounds include that uncertainty. FY2024 reported +6% bookings is a revenue proxy. FY2025/26 declines are assumed rates, not disclosed rates. EA's $1B American-football figure includes College Football and is excluded as a Madden total. Visible Alpha is a scope-uncertain scale cross-check, with forecasts kept separate from actuals.

FIFA / EA SPORTS FC: FY2000 >90M title revenue and FY2004 >5M franchise units anchor early scenarios, with intervening interpolation. FY2010 and FY2020 broad franchise scale comes from Ampere. FY2015–2020 use yearly reported title revenue and EA-wide Ultimate Team totals with an assumed FIFA share calibrated to FY2020, plus an assumed residual for legacy/Online/Mobile. FY2011–2014 bridge to the later component model; FY2021–2026 apply explicit UT/bookings-growth proxies and assumed rates. A bookings-growth rate does not establish same-period GAAP revenue growth.
FIFA SCOPE CONFLICT: broad-franchise estimates near $3.5B disagree materially with other analyst figures around $2B. FC and FUT categories may overlap; they are NOT added. The central broad-franchise scenario remains low confidence, with a wide range. Alternative analysts and estimates relayed by news outlets are not automatically independent source roots.

The CSV provides each year's value, sensitivity bounds, formula, confidence, source links and year-specific evidence. Every y-axis starts at zero; review scales span 0–100. Paired charts keep two independent scales on the left. Smooth connectors add no subannual observations. These estimates are research scenarios, not audited company totals.

FRESHNESS CHECK — 8 OCTOBER 2026
All 84 Metacritic pages refreshed directly on this date: 81 scores, three original-2000 titles without scores. Integer scores and lead platforms unchanged. FC27 PS5 critic count rose from59 to60; score remains75. Latest PS5 scores: NBA2K27 78/100 (36 critics), Madden27 78/100 (20), FC27 75/100 (60). Scores use Metacritic weighting, not a self-computed review mean. Default platforms vary historically; the charts do not claim a constant-platform sample. Review score download: /charts/data/sports-games-review-scores.csv.

Latest EA and Take-Two 10-Qs cover June30,2026 (Q1FY2027), filed August3 and August7. Later filings through October8 were checked for material revenue updates. NBA2K26 sold-in >12M is cumulative as of August, and NBA quarterly recurrent spending +7% is a component-growth measure. EA FC quarterly recognized revenue grew while FC UT bookings fell; the different recognition bases prevent mechanical annualization. American-football figures do not isolate Madden from CollegeFootball. These observations do not replace FY2026 annual scenarios or establish FY2027 totals. Annual model values are unchanged and remain estimates.

LATEST QUARTER SOURCES
nba-2k: https://ir.take2games.com/static-files/d790e168-8982-4ac3-ac06-9af093d9cb3c?pubDate=20260807 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/946581/000162828026054870/ttwo-20260630.htm
fifa-fc: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/712515/000162828026051829/ea-20260630.htm
madden: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/712515/000162828026051829/ea-20260630.htm